Entries in Disruptive Technology (11)
Bruce Warila | Sun, July 20, 2008 at 10:13 PM What's in your seed song bucket?
Disruptive Technology, Alternative Music Marketing, End of Paid Downloads, Music Information Retrieval 
When a consumer pushes the third radio button from the left, the heart of the entire centrally planned, top-down, ass-kissed, palm-greased, inefficient economy of the music industry grunts.
A millisecond after that button is pushed, music bubbles out the speakers. Everything leading up to that point is part of one paradigm, and that paradigm is PUSH.
- The band finishes a new album, so they push an announcement out to fans.
- The band wants gigs, so they push press kits out to talent buyers.
- The band wants to get signed, so they push anything they can toward labels.
- The label needs to promote, so they push music onto a demographic.
- The label wants radio spins, so they push music into radio stations.
- The radio station needs market share, so they push most-common denominator playlists.
- The label needs to sell CDs, so they push crates of CDs upon stores.
- The band wants sales, so they push fans to iTunes.
The Twilight of Push, The Dawn of Pull...
To imagine the end of Push, you have to take the entire previous section and invert it. Where the last fifty years was about PUSH, the next fifty years will certainly be about PULL. As a consequence, you will have to unlearn and ultimately forget everything that is PUSH, and then discover, invent and invest in everything that is PULL.
The Language of Pull... What's in Your Seed Song Bucket?
One of the first PULL concepts is the idea of a Seed Song Bucket. A Seed Song Bucket is a concept that will enter the lexicon of the music industry, and probably displace or replace terms like radio station, genre, playlisting, file sharing and music promotion. "What's in your seed song bucket?" is a sentence you can expect to roll off the tongues of music fans everywhere.
The center button in the radio image above activates the Seed Song Bucket called Friday Night. There are ten songs in this fictional Seed Song Bucket.
- Banquet by Bloc Party
- The Chemicals Between Us by Bush
- Electric Feel by MGMT
- Flight by Jediah
- Perfect Time of Day by Howie Day
- Reptile by The Church
- Rise by Samantha James
- Sugar, We're Goin Down by Fall Out Boy
- You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet by Bachman-Turner Overdrive
- You're All I Have by Snow Patrol
Measuring Relevancy - a Primer
Every song can be converted into something that can be plotted on a three-dimensional grid. A seed song bucket looks like a cluster of points on this grid. All of the songs in the system will either fall within this three-dimensional cluster or outside of it. Distances between songs and the cluster can be simply measured. Songs falling within, or just outside the cluster, will be played first and according to a geometric distance from the cluster. In the two-dimensional diagram below, song B would be played prior to song A. Click this link if you would like to see more detailed graphical representations of this concept.
Entire MP3s are not stored in the brain; every song is converted into something that's remembered and plotted (an association). Programming directors read charts, follow trends and analyze songs. With enough metadata attached to songs, an expert (not me) could explain how a music relevancy engine could be constructed to function like a live radio programming director. Google is built upon a relevancy engine, and it does a far more efficient (not necessarily better) job at supplying you with search results, than any army of humans ever could; songs shouldn't be much different. So, when you start hearing people ask, "What's in your seed song bucket?", then you know the world is transitioning from PUSH To PULL.
Bruce Warila | Sun, June 8, 2008 at 06:45 AM The celestial funnel will end the ability and the need to promote undiscovered artists and songs.
Promotion, Disruptive Technology, Business Advice For Artists, Alternative Music Marketing, Music Information Retrieval The Celestial Jukebox
Perhaps you’ve heard about the “Celestial Jukebox”? It’s the notion that anyone, anywhere will be able to listen to a continual and personalized stream of digital music through devices and computers connected to the Internet. By the end of 2008, the Celestial Jukebox will have just about arrived.
The Celestial Jukebox is great news for artists. The technology that powers the Celestial Jukebox will recommend you and your songs to those seeking your style of music. The same technology will ultimately generate royalties and opportunities from sources you could only dream about three years ago.
To succeed in the Celestial Jukebox, make it though the Celestial Funnel.
Before you make any money from the Celestial Jukebox, your songs will have to make it through the Celestial Funnel. The Celestial Funnel is the widespread availability of, and the pervasive and coordinated reliance upon Same Sonic Science, Social Validation, Big Brother Systems, and upon Trusted Curators (all explained below).
The Celestial Funnel is the Music 2.0 phenomenon artists have been waiting for, and it’s the absence of it, that made Music 2.0 the bitch you didn’t expect. Digital music was supposed to change everything. Instead, it ushered in an unprecedented tidal wave of crap competition and clutter that’s unlike anything anyone had ever seen before. The Celestial Funnel is game changing; it cuts out the chafe, eliminates the clutter, and it enables great artists and songs to be found…rather effortlessly.
Who will use the Celestial Funnel?
Eventually everyone. However, since most people still find out about music the old fashioned ways, all of the gatekeepers that make and break artists, such as record labels, programming directors, music supervisors, booking agents and anyone with gravity in the music industry, will use the Celestial Funnel to find the best songs and artists.
The Celestial Funnel will end music promotion, as you know it today.
By 2012, pre-popularity promotion will cease to be effective. Prior to participating in any music related opportunity that’s bigger than a backyard barbeque, you and/or your songs will have to make it through the Celestial Funnel. Artists should take note: no amount of indie promotion will take you or your songs through the funnel faster. As the Celestial Funnel envelops the marketplace, you will no longer be able to put lipstick on the proverbial pig.
Why will the Celestial Funnel work?
My job is to understand the depth and capabilities of the new technologies and services that are being built for the music industry. I can tell you that the technology that I am about to describe works well, and that it’s only getting better. Second, and more importantly, the technology doesn’t have to work perfectly; it only has to cut the size of the haystack by 80% to enable those that need to find the needles…a simpler and less-labor intensive way to find them. The people that are charged with sifting through mounds of songs and piles of artist profiles will readily embrace this timesaving technology.
Stages of the funnel. Stage One - Same Sonic Science
Same Sonic Science, also known as Music Information Retrieval, includes software and services that can:
- Recommend songs that truly sound like another song (the seed song).
- Funnel out songs that do not have the attributes that a listener is seeking.
- Measure a songs proximity to a cluster(s) of songs.
- Measure potential popularity (by counting charting-songs or by any subjective criteria) of songs in a cluster.
- And, many other related propositions via database design and user interfaces.
There’s no danger that Same Sonic Science will cause every song to sound the same. Any song is a jumping off point for seeking sameness. This technology works, it will cut out huge buckets of bad, and it’s being glued into every single digital music proposition on earth.
Stages of the funnel. Stage Two - Social Validation
Moving down the funnel, the next stage is Social Validation; it’s the first stage of the funnel that enables humans to correct the inaccuracies of, or the inconsistencies within, the Same Sonic Science. Social Validation is what happens after someone pushes the Same Sonic Button on a digital music site, or within a digital music system. It’s the next thing(s) people do after listening. In no specific order, they bookmark, they add to a playlist, they share, they recommend, they tag, they buy, they vote, they download, they steal, they play again, they leave a comment, or they basically do anything that causes an information system to record a positive or negative event. The data that’s generated from social validation will be observable everywhere.
Stages of the funnel. Stage Three - Big Brother Systems
The next stage of the funnel is the use of systems that combine Same Sonic Science with as much Social Validation data that can be collected. Huge pools of song consumption/activity data are accumulating across the Internet and elsewhere. It’s now possible to monitor the world for songs that are bubbling under the radar in every niche. It’s also possible to identify emerging trends and new niche genres. Right now, there are a few gatekeepers that are preparing to act upon this data. In the near future, every professional in the music industry will use this data to some extent. Within five years, presentations of this data, through stunning user interfaces, will be available to everyone.
Stages of the funnel. Stage Four - Trusted Curators
Stages one, two, and three of the funnel, will eliminate 80% to 90% of the songs entering the funnel each year. However, the funnel keeps getting bigger. New songs mingle with old songs, and there are still too many songs for the average consumer to listen to. Trusted Curators (refernce) are those that know how to extract the gems from the bottom of the funnel, and consumers will still rely upon these people to make recommendations. Trusted Curators are record labels (still), programming directors, music bloggers, music supervisors, talent buyers, booking agents, others, and my favorite: artists that brand together to build a brand on the Internet.
Funnel Strategies For Artists - 2010 and onward.
There will be no fooling the funnel. There are too many sites and systems, and everything can be crosschecked and correlated. Don’t waste your time buying plays or trying to find ways to game the funnel. Eventually, you will be exposed as a fraud.
Hedge your bets and create a mutual fund for songs. If you have some business sense and if you are skilled at promotion, become a Trusted Curator. Pull numerous artists into a unified brand where everyone involved shares in some of the upside.
If I were an aspiring artist today, I wouldn’t spend much effort on promotion (single artist no, multi-artist brand yes). I would wait for the funnel to evolve. Your songs are going to settle into their natural place in the funnel regardless of how much or little noise you make about yourself.
Stop editing your own work. Find a great producer / engineer to help you make the best songs possible. Make lots of songs, and seek every bit of rip-it-apart, put-it-back-together feedback as possible.
Absolutely wipe the following thought from your brain: “If I could get a record deal and get my songs into heavy rotation on FM radio, everyone would love me.” That’s never going to happen. Record labels will be the biggest users of the funnel; especially Stage Three (Big Brother Analysis). It’s all going to be about song quality (finally). You can’t promote your way to a “deal”. Make songs, obtain super critical feedback, fix and repair songs, repeat process; this is your best option.
Prior to becoming reasonably popular, putting numerous, iteratively improved and produced songs into the Celestial Funnel will generate more career progress than going on tour. In my opinion, you are better off working the best day job you can find, and then investing in professional help to make your songs better (versus touring as an unknown).
How do I put songs into the funnel?
Make sure you have a Free Song Strategy and a Digital Manager (a human) that seeks the most efficient way to manage your presence on anything and everything on the Internet. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to create profiles and to continually load songs into everything on the Internet, but you have to do it for now.
- TuneCore can help you move your songs around, but TuneCore’s reach is limited.
- ArtistData can help you move your data around, but not your songs.
- ReverbNation and TuneCore can help you monitor progress.
- All three of the propositions above need to be combined.
It’s early days for the funnel. 2008 is barely year one of the Celestial Funnel. It will take several years for everyone to fully adopt most of this technology. By 2011, fresh songs will take a year (one million new songs a year) to succeed or fail. I have nothing to base this upon; it's just my estimate.
A word of caution…
I am always ahead of my time. If you are 2/3 into your plan for success, you may want to ignore me and continue. If you are just starting out, hit print and read again…
Bruce Warila | Wed, March 12, 2008 at 11:22 PM Music Think Tank
Making Money In Music, Disruptive Technology, Business Advice For Artists, Illegal File Sharing, Music Industry Commentary, Planning & Strategy, Business Models 
I am taking the advice I give to Brand Together. You will be able to find new articles I post on Music Think Tank. I am flattered to be part of such a great group of people.
Bruce Warila | Fri, February 1, 2008 at 05:08 PM Hit Song Science
Promotion, Disruptive Technology, Music Industry Commentary, Business Models, Music Information Retrieval 
In Previous Posts
Previously, I wrote about the demise of traditional record deals. I also stated that investors would find great songs and offer Single-Song-Investment-Deals to artists. I also told you that record labels need to consider a new model where data is more important than marketing, and that marketing and promotion as you understand it today will cease to be entirely useful. What I did not demonstrate is a clear example of how this will happen.
In This Post
I will show you one of the methods that will be used to find hit songs, and the example will demonstrate why promotion will take a back seat to data. This post will also describe a $100,000,000 business that will unfold over the next 24 to 36 months. I will also offer advice to artists as they prepare for this future.
Advertisement & Disclaimer
I will work with any artist-friendly company on refining and applying this vision. My goal is to never have a great song go unheard again. Also, I have no connection to Hit Song Science. Although I have tried their technology, my analysis of their business model is based upon speculation.
How Songs Will Be Found
With millions of songs in existence and with hundreds of thousands of songs created each year, it’s hard to envision how Song Investors will find the needles in the giant haystack. Imagine putting all of the songs in the world into a huge funnel. The first step is to funnel out the 80% that are potentially unpopular; thus leaving the decent songs to be further funneled and analyzed by computers and humans (hopefully).
Hit Song Science
Companies like Hit Song Science (read article) already have the tools that could be used to funnel out the first 80%. A song can be loaded into Hit Song Science’s computers and they can measure within acceptable accuracy limits if a song could be a hit. Click here to learn how Hit Song Science does this.
I tried out Hit Song Science and I am satisfied that this tool could be used as I describe below. To save you the trouble of loading up a bunch of songs, all of Jediah’s Hit Song Science reports are at the bottom of this post. You can download or listen to Jediah’s songs and read the reports to see if you think they are accurate.
Hit Song Science just raised $7,000,000. Don’t judge the company by their old website.
The $100,000,000 Business
“Let me see your Hit Song Science Reports.” Imagine if every label, club, talent buyer, booking agent, ad agency, filmmaker, television show, manager, promotion company, music supervisor, publishing firm and fans wanted to see your Hit Song Science Reports prior to moving an inch! $10 times 10,000,000 songs is a $100,000,000 business. Within three years, the phrase “Let me see your Hit Song Science Reports” will be as common as “How many friends and plays do you have on MySpace?”.
Acceptable Accuracy Limits
I mentioned the concept of “acceptable accuracy limits”. It will not matter to many of the report readers listed above if technology like Hit Song Science is less than 100% accurate; here’s why: in every segment of the music industry margins are slim; any tool that can reduce overhead and increase odds will be rapidly embraced. 100% accurate or not, (numerous) tools like Hit Song Science are going to be part of the future.
The Problems I Envision
This is not an obstacle that can’t be overcome. The biggest problem with systems like this is: when it comes to music, the past or even the near past, is not the best predictor of the future. Systems like Hit Song Science use previous hits to predict the future. The problem with using previous hits as a baseline is that they were funneled using the smallest funnel on earth. Small committees or a single person within a record label picked the potential hits. If all of the hits in the comparative database had been organically crowd-sourced over the past fifty years then this would not be an issue (for me at least). However, since the prior hits were picked by experts and not by the masses, I am pretty sure they will have to adjust for trends and tastes that were missed and (over or under) exploited.
If you want to dig deeply into music recommendation and discovery subscribe to Paul Lamere's blog titled Duke Listens I would also go to this post on Paul's blog, scroll to the bottom and download his excellent PowerPoint presentation. I have come to beleive that Paul generally knows as much or more about this stuff as anyone working in the field; if only I could get him to invite me up to Sun Microsystems for a visit.
Other Systems & Companies
Hit Song Science seems like an interesting spin on what you already know as music recommendation systems. Companies like Pandora, MyStrands, iLike, Last FM, Music IP, and others should be able to offer differentiated services that perhaps predict entirely different outcomes, as each of these companies is approaching the prediction and discovery business differently. The bottom line is: you will not be able to hide from the data your songs generate.
Science Wins - Marketing Changes
Surely you can see how this type of system changes marketing and promotion. Artists will hold up their scores like a restaurant boasts about a five star rating or a great review. Moreover, there will be companies that feature, promote and pay for highly rated songs. On the other hand, marketing will cease to be effective for artists that can’t score a hit report.
Preparing For Hit Song Science
The best way for an artist to prepare for a world that runs on these types of systems is to ignore them. Well, sort of. If I had the option to spend time and money right now on promotion versus creating, I would pick creating. Making great songs will pay bigger dividends than adding fans to your fan base. Don’t get me wrong, fans are great, but you could spend the next 24 months building a fan base, or you could just pop out on a report and get picked up by a national radio group. One effort may get you 10,000 fans, but the other effort will get you 1,000,000 fans.
Final Note
When iTunes was born everyone thought it was great that the music distribution barrier had been broken. Then everyone found out that there is this HUGE HUGE HUGE promotion barrier. When companies like Hit Song Science go live with their new tools (hopefully I have accurately predicted what their product will be), 80% of the promotion barrier will be gone. With a good report card you will be able to jump to the head of the line.
Jediah’s Songs (the band I backed) - their Hit Song Science Reports
I will say that some of Jediah’s lowest rated songs are some of my favorites (such as Come Around and The Fears) and the fan-favorite (Butterfly) scored below eight other songs on their recent album; this was a big surprise. However, I do see the validity of the analysis in the reports. In addition, we could have used this data to alter the mix on several songs to improve our scores, and I may have used the data to push Don't Die or Flight instead of Butterfly.
To review Jediah's reports on a page with a song player click here (best option).
You can also quickly download all of Jediah's songs at Jamendo.
If you are going to try Hit Song Science make sure your MP3s are encoded at the proper rate. I believe Jediah would have scored higher if I had encoded the MP3s properly.
Bruce Warila | Wed, November 21, 2007 at 10:58 AM 2007 - Freaking Out About The Future - Don’t
Making Money In Music, Disruptive Technology, Business Advice For Artists, Music Industry Commentary, Alternative Music Marketing DARK GLOOM
Everybody from Gene Simmons (Kiss Fame) to 50% of the artists I encounter blogging - are freaking out about the future. Some of the comments are outright nasty; some would rather die than give away their music; some hate the notion of ad-supported music; some hate Apple and iPods; and others can’t believe it’s come to t-shirts and touring to make money.
CHILL OUT
The sky isn’t falling, and your music will have value beyond the pennies you are currently making from selling MP3s. The future is bright. Go back to making music and let the industry get over this unpleasant hump. Things are going to change and you will make money.
GIVE AWAY YOUR MP3s
I regularly advise artists NOT to hold out for download revenue. You can read this, this, and this to find out why I recommend giving away at least a demo version (or better) of your MP3s.
THE CD IS ALL DONE
I no longer consider selling CDs as a serious revenue option (depends on the genre). Hoping that CD sales will magically rebound is for dreamers. This blog and this post are for those that have moved beyond the CD. You may sell some CDs in 2008-2009, but beyond 2010, CDs will become the novelty item that vinyl is today.
THE MP3 SHOULD BE ALL DONE
The MP3 sucks as a package; it was invented twenty years ago when Jimmy Carter was president, and at a time when computers had about as much power as today’s Happy Meal toys. The MP3 was a necessary evil that changed everything, but its’ time has come. It’s a blasted little invention that TRANSPORTS (key term here) nothing but a hearing problem. When Apple can transport 60 minutes of color television programming, soundtrack included, to your pocket for $1.99, you know the MP3 is a dinosaur in comparison.
YOU WILL MAKE MONEY
Here’s why you don’t have to freak out about the future: Fat Packages (FP) and Cool Streams (CS). (I know what you’re thinking – it’s a physical contradiction.)
FP - FAT PACKAGES
FP - ROLL YOUR OWN
In the near future, you will be able to sit down in front of something I will call your Digital Asset Browser; it’s something like iTunes for ALL of your digital stuff - including: your songs, your images, your blog entries, your videos, your show schedule, your fan widgets, your multi-player fan games, your friends list, your comments, your art, your lyrics, your links, your ringtones, YOUR advertisers, and etc. You will then be able to CUSTOM ROLL all of this stuff into a tidy FAT PACKAGE and sell it to your fans.
FP - RUNS ON EVERY DEVICE AND EVERYWHERE
Your Fat Package will run on every single capable mobile and desktop device on earth including television, and it will be deployable upon every social network on the planet.
FP - THE FREE AD-SUPPORTED VERSION
The FREE, sharable, tradable version will be ad-supported. You will receive a portion of the ad revenue when users interact with your Fat Package. If you are worried about a world gone crazy with advertising, then you should know that this type of package would be one of the most attractive advertising vehicles on earth. The matrix of quality user info (iPhones spitting out profile data for example) combined with the “information-generating” value of this type of engaging content will attract higher CPMs (dollars per thousand impressions) then web pages do now.
FP - THE NO ADS VERSION
Consumers will purchase buckets of ad-free time, and they will have the option of applying these minutes to playing with your FAT Package without being molested by intrusive ads. You will also have the option of turning features on and off depending on which version (ads or not) of your FAT Package fans are using.
FP - THEFT WON’T MATTER
As soon as it’s “stolen” these things will switch to ad-mode. So, it doesn’t matter; theft (sharing) becomes a good thing.
FP - DYNAMIC PUBLISHING
Everything you change from your songs to your schedule is automatically reflected in every FAT Package you put into the marketplace. This isn’t MySpace or Facebook, this is your own FAT Package of things you will simply publish and sell. These things can appear everywhere and anywhere; fans will collect them, display them and trade them.
FP - HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU MAKE?
Like anything that is desirable or not, it depends on the quality of your package. Over time, I believe a single copy of a FAT Package will generate twenty times the revenue of an MP3. And don’t forget, you will be updating your package continually; thus increasing its’ value over time.
FP - PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE
Since this stuff is not in the marketplace yet, you should be asking yourself what you could do to get ready for the future? I am going to follow up with more on this later, but my primary advice is to learn how to be “episodic”. Your FAT package will have more value when fans know that it’s constantly and continually updated with a stream of good stuff. You may want to reconsider the notion of a “band”; team up with a filmmaker, a writer, a cartoonist, a photographer, and/or other creative people.
At the very least, you should reconsider the notion of an album and/or what a song is. Where a song was a permanent snapshot in time, and an album was a time capsule, with FAT Packages this no longer has to be the case; songs could evolve forever, and albums will become journeys. You have to learn how to think like a television series writer; tell a story, develop characters, create drama and mysteries, lash your music to visuals, release things over a multi-year period, and continually evolve your “art”. (etc. etc. etc.).
Yeah, this raises the bar and makes life more challenging, however think about this: in 2007-2008 there is barely a circumstance where people listen to music – when a screen or monitor is not present; this includes the car, the gym, the desk, and the pocket. The ability to have a visual or interactive component is always there now. This is not unprecedented; think back one hundred years – this was the only way music was experienced – live, with visuals, and/or attached to a story.
The notion of JUST listening to music without experiencing something visual, physical or interactive is only 100 years old. All throughout the rest of time, “music” was always more than just an auditory experience.
You can read more about my vision for FAT Packages by clicking here.
CS - COOL STREAMS
CS - COOL STREAMS – THE NEW RADIO
If a FAT Package is the new “album” that fans acquire when they believe in an artist, then a Cool Stream is the new “radio” that consumers will use when they want to passively listen to music.
CS - COOL STREAMS ARE CUSTOM STREAMS
Music recommendation engines combined with music streaming services will enable anyone, almost anywhere, to dial into their own custom stream of music. Simple interfaces already enable users to funnel and filter music like never before. Basic programming options such as these (basic examples below) will continually shape the streams of music we passively listen to.
- Enter twenty songs you like.
- Enter five songs you hate.
- Press/Click here if you never want to here that song again.
- Press/Click here to skip that song into next week.
- Press/Click here to put that song into heavy rotation.
- Slide this dial to balance your playlist between existing hits and new music.
- Press/Click here to add that song to your favorites.
- Enable my friends to add songs to my playlist.
CS - COOL STREAMS EVERYWHERE
It won’t be long before you can listen to your own cool stream everywhere. Cool streams are already available on your computer, and more and more handheld devices will offer this capability. The automotive industry is embracing this technology, and you will even be able to push your stream into the locations you are traveling to such as bars and nightclubs, albeit with some restrictions.
CS - CROSS STREAMING
What happens when 100 people are trying to push their streams into the same bar? The "stream god" puts all of the streams into a funnel and plays what makes sense – given everyone’s lists and preferences.
CS - STREAM BIDDING
Want to listen to your Cool Stream in the pub between 9:00 PM and 10:00 PM? Using your mobile phone, outbid the other patrons for the right to listen to your stream. Stream bidding is another example of the “user interfaces” that will change how music is consumed.
CS - GETTING IN WILL BE EASY
Have you heard the phrase “an ass for every seat”? Music recommendation engines will become so freaking useful over the next three years that it will be possible for the listeners that enjoy your exact flavor, color, genre, niche and brand of music, even if it’s just one listener, to FINALLY find your music. Every artist will have an opportunity to find the perfect genetic mate between his/her music and the fan(s) that may love it.
CS - EVERYWHERE AND ANYWHERE
The type of streaming services described here will be EVERYWHERE and ANYWHERE. This is a bit of important redundancy, however this stuff will be so prevalent in life that it will seem like “pennies from heaven” for artists. Meaning: your music will be placed into so many streams, so often, and in so many places, that the micro revenue opportunities will be endless. Remember, these things will find the “ass for every seat”.
CS - GETTING PUSHED OUT WILL BE EASY
While getting into these streams may just mean passing some quality threshold standards, I believe getting pushed out may be just as easy. Let’s say your new song has been streamed 99 times, and on every occasion someone pushes the “I never want to hear that song again” button - well, your song may be on the way out of the system for good - or at the very least, your play frequency will drop to minimal.
CS - WITH ADS OR WITHOUT
It’s probably obvious, but services offering Cool Streams will make streams available with ads or without. In the case of without, consumers will purchase buckets of ad-free time. Either way, you will share in the revenue streams that are generated from the use of these services.
CS - HOW MUCH MONEY WILL YOU MAKE?
Unfortunately, I believe that the amount of, or fraction of “pennies” you may make from each stream is still unsettled, or it has not been clearly established in my mind. Some services are paying artists directly, while other services are using the established industry-royalty-infrastructure. What’s more clear to me is this: while today’s music industry can be characterized as “hit driven”, tomorrows music industry will be characterized as a “slow burn”.
CS - THE SLOW BURN
Let’s say for example that you have just created a very good (subjective - I know) alternative rock song; you entered the song into the recommendation-god-machine, and then you went about the business of your life. Given the complexity of the machine, the ebb and flow of popular culture, the size of the population, the amount of songs in the machine, and the durability of good songs – I would say that it MAY take two years to generate a return you can make a car payment with. Of course some songs will go like wildfire, but other songs may just slowly burn until they have been filtered into the adoption curve; which is continually shaped by culture and technology.
CS - WHAT CAN YOU DO NOW?
As I said at the top of this post, go back to making great music; that’s the best thing an artist can do period. There are a couple of other things you should consider: The Copyright Royalty Board is going to rule on the royalty rates that webcasters must pay when offering services such as those described here; you should consider how this may impact your future. I plan to look deeply into this – stay tuned. Also, be careful about tossing around your publishing rights. You may not be generating much of an income from publishing now, however this may be the horse that generates all of your winnings in the future.
Bruce Warila
Here are some questions I have been asked about FAT Packages, and my broad answer to all of the following questions.
QUESTIONS
- How would packages be played in a song/media player?
- How would one use packages on a social network?
- Can I add my own content to a package before sharing it?
- Can I break a package apart?
- How can I use a package when disconnected from the Internet?
- How would I use a package in a device?
ANSWER
The visual metaphor of a package or deck (shown here) is great for enabling users to grasp the concept of something larger and more powerful than an MP3; it is also great for building user interfaces around; as a software designer can enable people to perceive that they are truly building, managing, sharing and sending something concrete and tangible.
The reality is: creators of packages or decks (artists) are actually uploading assets (music, images, video, schedule info, lyrics, etc.) to a database that resides on a system of servers (The Open System), and what users (fans) are manipulating, sharing or sending is a package of “links” that are tied to a Matrix of Permissions.
The Matrix of Permissions is actually what ALLOWS things to happen. Let’s say for example, an independent software developer wants to make a web-based music player for social networks that enables fans to “upload” any number of FAT Packages into a widget that features a slick cover flow interface; let’s call this widget the “FAT Cover Flow Player”.
If the software designer has done a great job, the user will perceive that he or she is uploading, dragging, dropping and sorting a bunch of FAT Packages. In reality, the user is transferring pointers or links to the assets that reside in The Open System, and when the “transfer” occurs, the Matrix of Permissions allows the FAT Cover Flow Player to access the assets within each package, and based upon the permission settings – do something with those assets, such a play music and display images and lyrics, and with or without advertisements. Conceptually, the same thing would happen when a user wants to transfer Packages to a portable device.
This seems much more complicated then tossing around MP3s, however the systems, the software, the devices and the networks we use now are much more powerful and capable than how we devote them to loving MP3s. If we want to restore the recorded music industry to growth and profitability, we have to invest in these types of seemingly-complex systems that are capable of TRANSPORTING value; that is, the type of value that consumers will pay for.
The Personalized Payola Pump - it’s logical, righteous, disruptive and almost here.
Yet another music proposition for consumers launches and I’m yawning again. I examine and consider just about every consumer-music offering on earth. From my perspective, the thing consumers want, the thing independent artists need, and the thing that's disruptive to just about everyone in the music retailing and promotion business, hasn’t been uncorked yet.
The thing we all want and need is the Personalized Payola Pump (PPP), and I can’t wait until this product launches. The PPP is the only logical, righteous and disruptive product that I can get excited about. Before I describe the PPP, here are eight of my core assumptions:
When most of the artists on earth reach these conclusions/assumptions, what happens next? What happens next is the only logical alternative, and it’s exactly what consumers’ want: FREE MP3s - NO ADS, NO DRM, NO STRINGS ATTACHED. However, since dealing with 20,000,000 MP3s would be a boondoggle for both artists and consumers, we all need the Personalized Payola Pump to make it work.
I am a consumer. I want a magic (PPP) box that does the following:
A - I tell it the songs I like (my seed songs).
B - I tell it the songs I don’t like (my negative seed songs).
C - It gives me a controlled supply of FREE, filtered new songs that match my preferences (seed songs).
D - I can do whatever I want with the found songs - no strings/advertising attached.
E - I can tighten and loosen the proximity to my selection criteria (seed songs).
F - I can filter out crap by forcing the pump to send me songs that resemble other clusters of songs; such as hits from last year, or hits from the last twenty years, or popular songs on rock radio in London last month…
I am an artist. I want a magic (PPP) box that does the following:
A - I put my song into the magic box network.
B - The magic box company only charges me a small, annual flat fee.
(Payola to deliver songs to the new radio - get it?)
C - My song is delivered to those that want to hear it.
D - The magic box company tells me if anyone is looking for songs like mine.
E - The magic box company tells me what my chances are for obtaining spins on the new radio.
F - The more people that like my song, the more the magic box company recommends it.
When listeners convert into fans, fans buy my bundled digital music products.
The magic PPP box is disruptive to record labels.
I think the PPP is disruptive to labels in two ways. First, out of a million new songs created each year, there’s going to be a lot of great new songs, and these songs will be filtered, found and substituted for songs controlled by labels; this is what I have referred to as the substitution dilemma, and I still say this is the biggest challenge labels face (ear-share gets divided). Second, labels play the role of über filter for consumers and act as gateways to mass-market exposure. The PPP changes all this; in this system, a filtered new song is a filtered new song; it doesn’t matter where it comes from; moreover the PPP eventually negates the need for mass-market exposure.
The PPP is disruptive to music retailers, promoters and promotion gurus.
If you sell MP3s or stream MP3s, (cash or ad-based) the PPP obsoletes your MP3 business. You can only cling to old, major-label content for so long. Music promoters and promotion experts are equally affected. What’s the point if consumers can easily and legally, filter and find, anything they want for free? On a positive note, new bundled digital music products will be great for retailers (higher margins), and I am sure there will be a cottage industry that sells services/advice on how to package bundled assets (see Topspin for example).
The Personalized Payola Pump is coming…
Transition/change occurs along a spectrum. As you can imagine, the pump has more value for consumers when it can accurately pump a lot of free, filtered songs. Artists are just starting to realize that they need to have a free song strategy, and new bundled digital music products are just entering the marketplace. My company and several others are working on the “pump” (no that’s not the name of our product). If you would like to talk with us (seriously) about investing in the “magic box company” (another fictional name) please contact me directly.